One of the most important issues addressed in the presented roadmap is production of Shale in the U.S. which will experience an ever-increasing upward trend in the next four years. In 2021, shale production in North America will stand at 7.5 million bpd, 56 percent more than last year’s predictions. The U.S. will be the largest shale producer. Shale will also be produced by Canada, Argentina and Russia. In North America shale output hit 5.1 million bpd in 2017. Shale producers could match themselves with oil price fluctuations. Shale production rise in the U.S. will reduce the country’s reliance on oil imports especially from the Middle East.

According to the released roadmap by OPEC, oil prices will incrementally increase by 2040. Brent oil was traded at London’s market at the price of $63.71 per barrel. It is about one and a half year that OPEC tries to return oil price level to its previous figure in the past five years. With cooperation of non –OPEC countries, the international body reduced its production volume for 1.8 million bpd. OPEC members plan to get together 20 days later to extend oil cut for another six months. Although the recent tensions in the Middle East and the occurred changes in Saudi Arabia have pushed oil prices up, it should be remembered that oil market obeys influential factors including demand and supply in the long run. Getting OPEC-members united and reconciling them with non-OPEC countries, the organization could manage to pull up oil prices from $20 per barrel to about above $60 per barrel. OPEC-members are highly reliant on oil and they are bound to cooperate to guarantee sustainable income in future.

The present OPEC outlook predicts that in 2022, non-OPEC production will reach 62 million bpd from its 57 million bpd in 2016, which is higher than previous predictions. The U.S. production will play an important role in this increase. However, non-OPEC output will reduce step by step and in 2040 will reach 60.4 million bpd. According to the report, OPEC production in 2040 will increase up to 41.4 million bpd. In better words, OPEC’s share of the international oil market will increase from 34 percent in 2016 to 37 percent in 2040. Therefore, OPEC will become a more international body within the next three decades. OPEC members should tighten their internal bonds, accordingly.

By: Reza Zandi, Senior Journalist, Oil Analyst 

Courtesy of Etemad Newspaper