Either side wields tools to
influence the other side. Moreover, they are considered to be rivals in a
variety of sectors. Saudi King Salman's visit to Moscow on 4 October 2017 –
which was the first by a Saudi monarch in the history of ties between the two
countries – brought a variety of issues to the fore. One of important issues
discussed during this visit was oil price and the future of energy markets.
Energy; Key Issue
Since Russia and Saudi Arabia are
both key producers and exporters of oil in the world, the issue of energy was
put on the agenda of meetings during the Saudi ruler's state visit.
The discussions between Tehran and
Moscow concentrated on two main issues:
First was the issue of cooperation
between the two countries in energy sector; Russia is willing to invest in
Saudi's oil and gas industry while Saudis enjoy great potential to invest in
Russia's energy sector. To that effect, the Saudis announced that they would
invest in more than 25 projects in Russia, including oil and gas projects.
Second was the issue of extension of
a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut oil output in a bid to curb
the global supply glut which has slashed prices.
Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian
Direct Investment Fund, said Russia and Saudi Arabia had each earned $40
billion from the 2016 OPEC and non-OPEC deal.
International efforts to stabilize
oil prices "have been fruitful, bringing oil prices to above $55 per
barrel," Dmitriev told Rossiya 24 news channel.
"We believe that without this deal,
prices would be below $35 per barrel now," he added.
Dmitriev praised the 2016 agreement,
saying it "generated trust between nations and showed that by working
together we can achieve meaningful, serious results."
Meantime, Saudi Arabian Energy
Minister Khalid Al-Falih, who was in Moscow together with other officials
accompanying King Salman on his landmark Russian visit, also said that the deal
between OPEC and non-OPEC countries had helped to stabilize oil prices.
The minister also said that
cooperation between Riyadh and Moscow had "breathed back life into OPEC
which found itself, quite frankly, unable to swing its production as supply was
persistently high in 2014 and global inventories were steadily rising ahead of
Such remarks were indicative of
inclination by Russia and Saudi Arabia for the extension of the OPEC and
non-OPEC deal. On this basis, expansion of Russia-Saudi relations could
influence energy markets in the future. Undoubtedly if Moscow and Riyadh, both
rich in energy, cooperate closely they would be instrumental in determining
This issue could be of great value
for Russia which has been under sanctions and economic pressure in recent
Change and Stability
For Russia, Saudi Arabia's oil
policy, particularly with regard to prices has seen significant changes in recent
years. In the past, the Russians imagined that Saudi policy was a major cause
of decline in oil prices. More frankly, the Russians maintained that lowered
oil prices were a Saudi plot. Some in Russia believed that Saudi Arabia and the
US were driving prices down in a bid to pressure Russia into refraining from
meddling with the Middle East affairs, particularly in Syria.
Linking oil price decline to
Saudi-US anti-Russia alliance has a long history. In 1985, Saudi and the US had
undertaken similar measures to accelerate the collapse of the former Union of
Soviet Socialist Republics. In early 1985, unilateral production enhancement by
Saudi Arabia led to sharp price decline. That is to say, Saudi Arabia increased
its production in 1985 from 3.6 mb/d to around 5.2 mb/d in 1986. Later on, it
came out that market share policy, US –Saudi collusion, as well as CIA plot
were just tricks aimed at putting Iran under pressure to end imposed war,
accelerating FSU collapse as well as exerting further pressure on Libya.
Over recent years, the Saudis
imagined that Russia would stop supporting Syria's President Bashar Assad in
order to have funds for dealing with the crisis in Ukraine in case it faces
financial restrictions. A potential halt in Russia's support for the Damascus
government would have changed the game in favor of pro-Saudi forces fighting in
Syria. Furthermore, oil prices would have been a bargaining chip for Saudi
Therefore, continued low oil prices
would have prevented Russia from raising output, let alone affecting Moscow's
policy vis-à-vis Iran and Syria. That was indicative of some sort of energy war
between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which did not let the two countries come
closer together. That is why the Russians viewed oil price decline as a Saudi
In any case, Russia and Saudi Arabia
were considered as energy rivals, particularly in oil sales. While Moscow
favored higher oil prices, the Saudis were a major factor in pushing the prices
However, in recent years, two
factors have brought about a U-turn in the Saudi oil policy:
The first factor was losses incurred
by Saudi Arabia due to low oil prices. During the first days and months of oil
price crash, Saudi Arabia did not express any worry and even said it was ready
to face much lower prices. However, after it invaded Yemen it faced a decline
in financial resources. Saudi Arabia's 2017 budget bill was adopted with a big
deficit running at around 198 billion Saudi riyals. The pressure exerted on
Saudi Arabia due to low oil prices convinced this country to reconsider its oil
The second factor was the US oil
policy which saw a big change after President Donald Trump took office last
January. In the past, oil prices were rarely under the impact of events in the
developed markets of North America and West Europe. But under the present
circumstances where the OPEC and non-OPEC deal is in effect, any production
hike by a country would pose a challenge to this scheme. Trump's oil policy on
production hike is not welcomed by the Saudis who seek rapprochement with
Russia in a bid to compensate for the US breach of promise.
Russia and Saudi Arabia are currently
willing to cooperate in the energy sector; however, such willingness is out of
coercion, but for interests. Under normal conditions, they are rivals in terms
of oil production and exports.
Any increase in oil production and
export by Russia could largely destabilize the Saudi standing in global energy
markets. Moreover, the two countries have severe contradictory views about
political, regional and international issues like the Syria crisis.
Therefore, Russia-Saudi energy
cooperation is unlikely to be sustained and long-term and it will be vulnerable
to any return of prices on their normal track. Although Saudi Arabia's energy
policy on oil prices and cooperation with Russia has changed such a shift in
policy would not live long and will most probably remain limited to the OPEC
and non-OPEC oil output cut deal.
By Shuaib Bahman
Courtesy of Iran Petroleum